Relief in Moscow as Erdogan favorite in crucial Turkish election

Forget Bakmut or FI6. This is crucial for Russia in its diplomatic warfare with the US and NATO in Ukraine. If Erdogan returns to power for another five years, Russia’s Black Sea coastline will be protected from NATO threats as long as the war lasts.

by Robert Harness

Erdoğan may make life difficult for President Vladimir Putin, but he is well known to be a big deal and is an even bigger problem for the West. His opponents are much more likely to support Washington, NATO and the EU.
On May 22, the third candidate in Turkish presidential elections, nationalist and anti-immigrant Sinan Ogan, endorsed the incumbent president in the second round of presidential elections on May 28. Sinan Ogan surprised many by scoring 5.2% in the first round of voting. “I declare my support for People’s Union candidate Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the second round,” Ogan said at a press conference in Ankara, noting that his own camp has made Turkish nationalists a “political He added that he was making it a “main character.”

In the first round of voting, Erdogan won 49.5% of the vote, while Kirikda Rogul won 44.9%.

Kirikdaroglu’s National Alliance “failed to persuade us about the future”, he said, while the decision to support Erdogan was based on the principle of “constant fight against terrorism”.
In the first round of voting, Erdogan won 49.5% of the vote, while Kirikda Rogul won 44.9%. As no candidate scored above 50%, a second round will be contested only by Erdogan and Kirikda Rogul.
Importantly, parliamentary elections were held at the same time as the first round of presidential elections. Contrary to polls, President Erdogan’s party AKP and its ally People’s Union National Party MHP won a clear majority. The idea of ​​a separation of powers between the president and parliament is unappealing to many in Turkey in the current volatile international climate, with major wars erupting across the Black Sea.
Many Turkish voters want a strong government and do not condone the West’s alleged involvement in the 2015 coup against Erdogan that killed 300 people and injured more than 2,000. The US continues to give asylum to anti-Erdogan leader Fethullah Gulen, who is accused of orchestrating a coup, favoring Kurdish separatists. Russia, on the other hand, allegedly warned Erdogan in advance of what was planned, saving him from a possible assassination.
Even if all of Mr. Ogan’s supporters disobeyed his advice, Mr. Erdogan’s victory is a certainty. Russia’s position in Ukraine will be greatly strengthened not because Erdogan is pro-Russian, but because he is independent and wants to continue a policy of balance between the West and Russia. The United States and the West expected that Turkey’s economic problems would make it impossible for the Turkish president to be re-elected.
A devastating earthquake in Turkey in February killed 60,000 people and was thought to further jeopardize his election chances.

This will inevitably lead to continued tensions with NATO countries.

At the broader geopolitical level, with President Erdogan in power, Turkey could continue on the path toward closer ties with the growing BRICS forum led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. highly sexual. This will inevitably lead to continued tensions with NATO countries, especially the United States. Despite heavy pressure from Washington, Turkey’s policy to purchase the Russian S400 air defense missile greatly displeased its NATO allies, but was justified by events. Russian air defense systems have proven to be not only much better than the US Patreon, but also much cheaper. Possessing first-class Russian systems and not relying on the United States for spares and services also guarantees Turkey a degree of military independence.
Additionally, Turkey undermined NATO’s plans to quickly join Sweden and Finland, threatening Russia’s Baltic border, turning it into a long-running diplomatic dispute. Erdogan insisted that action be taken against Kurdish militants fleeing before allowing this to happen.
A less commented aspect of President Erdogan’s policy is strict adherence to the terms of the 1936 Montreux Convention, which regulates the passage of military vessels through the Dardanelles. Five days after Russia’s intervention in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Turkey’s foreign ministry declared a “state of war” and closed the strait to all warships not based in the Black Sea. This will limit the movement of the Russian navy, but will also block the entry of all NATO warships. Prior to this, NATO regularly flooded the Black Sea with as many as 20 ships. Many in Russia would have been of great help to Zelensky if this had continued during the war, and the main gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey under the Black Sea may have suffered the same fate as the Baltic Nord Stream. I believe not.

Russia is building Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant

Erdogan has a complicated relationship with Russia, especially over Syria, a Russian ally that still occupies parts of it. Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet in Syria in November 2015 and didn’t even hesitate to sell Bayraktar drones built by President Erdogan’s son-in-law to Ukraine. In December 2016, Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov was assassinated by off-duty police. Ankara official. Erdogan, on the other hand, is a pragmatist who has benefited greatly from cooperation with Russia in economic areas such as tourism and nuclear energy. Russia is building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, making Turkey a regional gas hub. Turkey has refused to impose Western sanctions on Russia over its wars in Crimea and Ukraine.
Naturally, none of this is satisfactory for the US, EU, and NATO, which will undoubtedly continue their efforts to retake Turkey as a Western client.