Tapio Kanninen & Heikki Patmaki (Le Monde Diplomatic)

Haall Negotiated peace deals in the Ukraine war are starting to grow, even in the United States. In early November 2022, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark A Milley made such a call. Charles A. Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, argued that “it’s time to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table.” But realistic terms for a possible peace deal have yet to be spelled out.

All peace deals are hard compromises. In this case, it should be accepted by both Ukraine and Russia. In other words, it should appear to bring more gain than loss to each, especially considering the failed Minsk I and II agreements. The role of the West, especially the United States, is crucial in convincing victims of aggression that peace talks make sense. Ukrainians, who may insist on total victory over Russia to the end, need assurances that aggression will not be rewarded and that the deal will not lead to destabilization of the entire international system.

At the same time, we must recognize that Russia has legitimate security interests and concerns, and that some of its past and present demands are reasonable. The United States and NATO rejected Moscow’s proposed new Russia-NATO and Russia-US treaties in December 2021, although some of those proposals were difficult or uninitiated. It may have been negotiated and agreed upon. Negotiations are always possible if there is political will.

In 2022, some (rare) proposals have been made that could provide a basis for de-escalation and negotiations. When the Russian invasion began (February), David Owen, Robert Skidelsky, Anthony Brenton, Christopher Glanville and Nina Krushciova proposed in an open letter to Russia. financial times “NATO should be able to work closely with Ukraine to submit detailed proposals for negotiating a new treaty with Russia.

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(3) See Tuomas Forsberg and Heikki Patomäki. Debating War in Ukraine: Counterfactual History and Future Possibilities, Routledge, 2023.

(6) Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge University Press, 1999.

(7) In December 2020, a high-level group of 145 former generals, politicians, former diplomats and academics from the United States, Europe and Russia, concerned about the increasing risk of nuclear and other militaryRecommendations of the Expert Dialogue on NATO-Russia Military Risk Reduction in Europe‘. Talks continued in a small group, but essentially moribund after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tapio Kanninen & Heikki Patmaki (Le Monde Diplomatic)

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