Erdogan wins after difficult election

perspective. Maverick President Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected with a majority of about 52.5% against a coalition of Western-friendly opposition parties led by Kemal Kirikdaroglu.

by Robert Harness

Erdogan became the longest-serving Turkish leader since Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, after the Ottoman Empire was crushed by British and French forces in World War I. The official results will be announced on June 1st.
Erdogan kept his cool during the interval between the two rounds. He campaigned confidently despite his illness, successfully extended the grain agreement between Ukraine and Russia, and improved his image by celebrating the first delivery of nuclear fuel to the Akyu nuclear power plant. rice field. The event announced Turkey’s accession to the Atomic Energy Club. Note that both events were timed in favor of Russian cooperation.

Turkey joins Atomic Energy Club

At the same time, he called for unity and said opposition voters were also “children of this nation.” He expressed his hope that they would come to their senses and still vote for him. “I hope we can walk this path together,” said the Turkish leader.
The significance of his victory was reflected in the congratulations showered on him by everyone from President Putin of Russia and President Viktor Orban of turbulent Hungary on the one hand to Presidents Biden and Zelensky on the other. stood out. No one wants to upset him unnecessarily now that the strategically advantageous Turkish ruler with NATO’s largest army after the United States is finally decided.
As I commented in my previous post, the Russians will be relieved that the blockade against NATO shipping into the Black Sea will not be loosened, nor will their growing economic ties with the BRICs weaken. Opposition leader Kirikda Rogul said he would decommission the current gas hub fed by the Turk River pipeline in the Black Sea if elected. This would have been an act of self-harm for the country, on a scale only Scholz’s Germany could match so far. It’s fair to wonder if he meant it, or if he knew he was going to lose anyway and was looking to the future to please Washington.

Russians are relieved

In this regard, the failed but determined attack by a maritime drone near Turkish waters on a Russian warship guarding the Black Sea gas pipeline last week was interesting. Far from Ukraine, the sophisticated plan apparently involved NATO countries attacking the economic interests of member state Turkey. The gap between his two ballots in the presidential election could have been seen as the last chance for such a risky operation.
The Turkish government will not take kindly to this threat to its profitable joint venture with Russia, and it will not take long to react. It was believed that once the elections were over, President Erdogan would allow Sweden to join NATO without further fussing over the Kurdish issue. The Swedish government has made it clear that an agreement is expected “soon”. A foreign ministers’ meeting between the two countries was scheduled, but it was not held because the Turkish foreign minister did not attend.
Turkey has been harboring members of Kurdish extremist groups that Sweden considers terrorists and has failed to fulfill part of a deal signed in Madrid in June last year to allay security concerns in Ankara. claimed. Talks between the two countries over NATO stalled during the election. On the other hand, the scheduled phone call with President Biden will definitely go ahead.

Turkey has no reason to leave NATO

In any case, it is clear that the diplomatic direction is unlikely to return to the West for at least the next five years. Russia and China have many economic benefits. At the same time, Turkey has no reason to leave NATO or quarrel unfairly with the EU, but they have no intention of soft-touching. President Erdogan’s words in the final election campaign make it clear. On May 25th, he told CNN Turkey, “With God’s help, if we win on May 28th, all 85 million people (Turkey’s population according to the latest official data) will win.” will be,” he said. If Kulchidalor wins, the terrorist organizations, the London loan sharks and the American corporations will win. We must not give opportunity to those who seek our unity and solidarity,” he declared. His opponents, meanwhile, said voting for Erdogan would be a “sin.”
Far more pressing issues for the newly elected president will be immigration, inflation and Turkey’s volatile currency, which is currently at a historic low against the dollar.
Western elites are perhaps fooling themselves by flattering that Erdogan is in a transitional period in Turkish politics and that his eventual successor will be easier to deal with. Like many non-Western countries, Turkey has rediscovered its confidence and is well aware that the West is not the only show in town. True NATO was an important aid to Turkey in countering Stalin’s arrogant attempt to control the strategic Dardanelles, but the Soviet Union is no more.
Those with long diplomatic memories know that it was the West that tried to quell Turkey’s resurgence after World War I, with Kemal Atatürk providing the funds and weapons to survive the initial hard times and the Turkish civil war. You will remember that it was Moscow and the USSR that did. The war of 1919-1923 that accompanied them.
No matter how unsatisfied the West might be with President Erdogan today, historically he is actually a long line of very down-to-earth Turkish leaders and diplomats working for Turkey’s national interests. I’m just one person.

À #strasbourgColumbus worshiping Islam and Allah Akbar to celebrate the victory of President Erdogan. pic.twitter.com/IdB94d6tbg

— Damien Liu (@DamienRieu) May 29, 2023